Cheat And Retreat, for The Umpteenth Time

TIME

January 18, 1993 12:00 AM EST

ANOTHER DAY, ANOTHER DEADLINE. AND ANOTHER backdown by Saddam Hussein, for what seems like the zillionth time. This time the Iraqi dictator had moved surface-to-air missiles into position to shoot down allied planes enforcing the no-fly zone established by the U.N. over southern Iraq. That provoked yet another Western ultimatum, this one joining the U.S., Britain, France and Russia. Its essence: get those missiles out by 5:30 p.m. New York time Friday (exactly 48 hours after the ultimatum was put in the hands of Iraqi Ambassador Nizar Hamdoon at U.N. headquarters in Manhattan), or else. The clear implication was that the “else” would be bombing of the missiles, their attendant radar and possibly also the runways used by Iraqi planes that have been flying into the exclusion zone. Yet again, Baghdad snorted defiance, talking of “holy war.” But by the time the deadline expired, the missiles had been taken out of firing position. On Saturday the White House announced that Iraq “is acceding to the requirements” of the ultimatum, and another crisis seemed to be over.

But for how long? The moves continued a pattern aptly dubbed “cheating and retreating.” On one occasion after another — most notably when inspectors were trying to get into suspected nuclear-bombmaking sites — Saddam has defied U.N. restrictions on his activities only to pull back just enough, and just in time, to avoid provoking a new round of shooting and bombing. The latest probes began around Christmas, when Iraqi jets flew into the exclusion zone established to protect Saddam’s rebellious Shi’ite subjects from air raids. American planes shot down an Iraqi jet Dec. 27, but that apparently moved Saddam to send in the missiles.

The Iraqi dictator may well go on prodding and probing. In fact, he announced a no-fly zone of his own that might keep tensions high: U.N. weapons inspectors would not be allowed to fly on U.N. planes inside Iraq. He obviously wants to test George Bush’s resolve in his last days in office, and Bill Clinton’s too. (Clinton has taken quite as strong a stand as Bush). Saddam may also be hoping that some countries may tire of the confrontations and cease supporting the U.S. China went along with previous anti-Iraq moves in the U.N. Security Council, where it has veto power, but this time protested the allied ultimatum. Keeping Saddam caged may not be the worst foreign-policy problem Bush bequeaths to Clinton, but it is not the least, either.

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